Wednesday, June 28, 2017

Democrats Won't Be Primaryed

It has been floating around the sphere and even wider Internet. What exactly? That the Democrats face the possibility of being primaryed or will collapse. Julian Assange had an interesting wall of text tweet that mentioned the Democrats' chances for collapse, and several others have discussed the base frustration, the base's split and the chance for primarying. It will not happen.

One need not look far back for the last time this was floated out. Hey, rememeber Occupy Wall Street kids? I wrote in 2012 why OWS failed while the Tea Party was a success. Michael Lewis was so ignorant of the game that he thought OWS would be the bet for long term success and how fast did OWS die? Within three, maybe five months? I will count the spending slowdown and sequestration when only holding one portion of Congress as success.

The Tea Party rallies eventually sucked in big money donors that could use candidates to jump ahead of well developed paths and get their pet issues and cronyism some attention. The major thing though was culturally the right had a core of middle and upper middle class angry voters that could pool money for fundraising, use the internet and shrink GOPe vs. Insurgent money gaps from 10-1 to 3-1. Enthusiasm made up for the rest.

There is no separate pool of money to fund insurgents versus the Left's current system. Bernie voters are young and broke. Look at the Left's coalition. The Jews, gays and older whites are all Clintonistas, and the Obama crowd, which is pure puppetry. They won't rebel. Blacks and Mexicans do not have money to fund insurgent candidates. Asians are a smaller voting bloc, have some money but their desires and needs would clash with the voting muscle in D districts.

If there is a possibility, it lies with an outsider. Here is where Zuckerberg comes in. Zuck was just in Iowa, visiting the world's largest truck stop. If you've been there, you're probably laughing at the idea of Zuck walking around with his security detail just out of camera range. Maybe he does not run, but if he wants to run in 2020 or 2024, then here is a path and means that involves primarying the incumbent Ds.

1. Dems having infighting. Zuck can see trends online to gauge how much and who to mobilize.
2. Zuckerberg is thinking 2020 or 2024.
3. Zuck sees chance with angry base.
4. Zuck becomes the deep pockets and sets up a SuperPAC that is Occupy Wall St themed or economic populist themed to primary a shit ton of old timer Dems.
5. The deeper the blue district or state, the easier this is. Look at how Cantor lost. He lost because his district was so safely red that there was a mass of angry red voters to toss him out, and on the cheap!
5a. The Daley machine is dying, which is a problem for Rahm in the here and now, so imagine what Zuck could do in some districts with the proper puppets.
6. He ends up being the name everyone on his side discusses in the 2018 election cycle a la Nixon in '66.
7. Some of his candidates win, not all, but some. With his control of Facebook and not being an official candidate, he can shift Facebook feeds to his favored candidates.
8. He now has a SuperPAC that is outside normal channels and has the Facebook media org tied to promote people with an election cycle under his belt. It becomes a practice election.
9. 2020 Zuck runs and if he won would walk in with democrats grateful to him dependent on his power island.

Dems cant be primaryed because their money donors are all enjoying the slower move to the left a la GoldmanSachs with a rainbow flag style. No one can primary them? What source of funds is there to fund these candidates? NONE. Zuck solves that on his own. Zuck would not start a party, doing what Macron just did. Too much effort.

Zuckerberg may not be positioning for a run at all but something else. In all honesty, he has more power now as leader of the Facebook maw than being the occupant of the Oval Office. Maybe Zuck wants to be tech czar in a future Democrat administration, where he can do to tech policy what GE did with industrial policy under Obama.

He has trend data. Zuck can also see the writing on the wall. He has access to trend data no one else does that is all tied to real people. Zuck could just be positioning himself for mercy if the plebians get the torches and pitchforks out.

Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Weimerica Weekly Episode 76 - Lena Dunham

New Weimerica Weekly is up. I spend a dozen minutes or so discussing Pax Dickinson's Counterfund. It is important as a development for dissidents and then how it can be used by other groups. After that introduction, I spend time discussing how Lena Dunham is the perfect symbol for Weimerican females.

Monday, June 26, 2017

It's Over For Guitar Center

Guitar Center received the big warning from Moody's, letting the media know that the party is over for the big retailer. Change is coming. It is only a matter of time and the form of change. It seems odd to focus on one suffering firm, but this is emblematic of the problem with our FIRE economy and where things are moving in the future.

Guitar Center (GC) was in a really strong position a decade ago. Don't take my word for it, read this Fortune blurb from late 2006. Revenue was soaring, they were expanding online and they were going to expand in meatspace up to 420 stores. The stock was $43/share then, so when Bain organized an LBO at $63/share it was rich, but hey the debt was available and investor pool willing.

The excitement ended. Nothing good happened. Expansion? It did not happen. They went from 170 stores to 270, and have been cutting employee count for years now. They've let roughly half their employees go in the last three years out of what was 16,000 full time employees. They are down to 6000. Their employee turnover is high, they switched to having a bunch of ees slide under the 30 hours per week line and it's a rough atmosphere even if you like music. Now lenders are getting antsy.

The company has half of its debt coming up in the next two years and needs to refinance. Its junk status hurts the terms they can get, but this should be doable in the yield chasing atmosphere of today. The timing of the LBO by Bain is the problem. They loaded up on debt to overpay for a retailer as the e-shopping revolution was ongoing, which no one in the entire decision chain thought would be an issue. They thought if they went online they could fix it.

Problem is these retailers do not get that no one cares where they get it from just that they get what they ordered and that they got the best deal. Manufacturers are even figuring this out and looking for direct sales and alternative marketing ideas. GC's buyers thought the name would mean something for purchasing music equipment, especially expensive equipment, but they failed to understand online shopping. They also failed to anticipate the secondary market forming online that would cut into their sales to casual consumers.

This firm will refinance and then cut back their brick and mortar footprint or worse, lenders will see more value in letting them fail and scavenging the wreckage. Does the brand have cache? Does it matter? At this point with low interest rates, GC will most likely get that refinancing with a promise of a new management team (would be 4th CEO in as many years) that will cut back even more employees to keep those debt coupon payments flowing to the creditors.

This is just delaying the inevitable though. Maybe the eventual retail fight is Amazon vs. Walmart with no one left. Wholesalers and retailers alike will get squeezed to nothing, shedding even more jobs in our economy, so where does it end? Do we get the fully automated luxury communism with a UBI? They'll make it universal basic consumption though so you have to spend the money they hand you to keep their game going.

Maybe the future is a bit more like The Diamond Age and you'll see the 3D printing, automated products of the future but the hand crafted, artisanal products will be luxury items. Services would follow a similar path, but maybe indentured servitude will make a comeback for the promise of a safe life in a big home. Whatever the future, it is hard to see big, but niche retailers like Guitar Center existing in it.

Sunday, June 25, 2017

Social Matter - America’s No-Fly Zone Doctrine To Protect Rebel Groups Is Starting To Shake

New essay up at Social Matter. We know the routine USG likes to use for regime change in the 21st century. It's nothing new. It is actually old and dates back to the Nixon administration. It is a perversion of a Nixon idea that was meant to protect our imperial vassals. I even point to how one can interpret Lend-Lease with the Soviets as a proto-regime change routine that resembles what we do now.

Friday, June 23, 2017

Ossoff's Loss + SM Review-Preview 95

The Democrats ginned their side up for a special election in a congressional seat they thought they could flip and lost. They didn't just lose but they lost monumentally when you consider the money they spent. Margin-wise this was a roughly 4 point win. Emotionally, this was a huge letdown for the Left. Big Picture: it means nothing. Nothing changes.

For the GOP, if anything, it means the GOP needs to give in and become the populist party that Trump campaigned on, which should open doors in states that they will want to control after the 2018 elections. It also means they should throw some kibble their base's way.

For Nate Silver, it means he needs to confess that he is a fraud. The man only made his name with political predictions because Team Obama fed him their internal data. They wanted him pushing the hype. They used him to manipulate the polling in '08 and '12 just like a basketball coach works the referees. Silver should retire now with his bags of Disney money.

For the Left, it shows how idiotic they are. Frank Luntz explained in a tweet that Ossoff spent $40 million and received fewer votes than the Democrat who ran in November received who spent $1,000. As I tweeted, it shows a problem for the Left and why they are really desperate for the Beige Bernie. How many Obamas are out there is a problem. Ossoff couldn't even vote in the district he was running in, so this was a carpetbagger. It raises questions, and these are serious as they point to problems in central control.

Where was the eloquent black male to send down to be an equal carpetbagger?
Did the Left really think a SoyBoy would win in Georgia?
Are there really no blacks to parachute down and drum up an extra percent or two in black turnout?
Do the whites on the Left have a clue how quickly they will be pushed out?
Is the Left serious in thinking they've played nice, been centrist and taken the high road? (Yes)
Again, is the cupboard really that empty for non-Asian minorities that can run for office?

The votes will be there. The Left is a headless horseman, so all they need is to find a candidate, preferably a non-Asian minority, heterosexual male candidate, to sing the Bernie line and it's clear sailings. Then because there is no elasticity in voters anymore because it is all racial, friction and conflict will come.

Still, this is a lesson in the thirst the Left has to always win non-stop despite winning culturally left and right. There has been a consistent poly push now for a while, with the NY Times really pushing it hard, and no pushback from outlets. Despite seeing the culture erode, and the borders remain open in the West despite now near daily attacks in Europe, they need even silly little congressional special election wins. Ossoff collected 7,000 donations from donors in California compared to only 800 in Georgia. He spent $40 million, $23 million which was spent by his campaign directly.

This is all wasted energy. This is wasted money. This is wasted time. The Left's policies are broken, their false opposition is broken, their claptrap is broken (science continues to break it in new spots), and the world just is not agreeing with them. Yet, they are entrenched in institutions. Build new ones, burn the old ones and starve them to death in  masturbatory solitude in coffin apartments with their cats in those cities that they love to love.

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Last week I wrote about the need to take the cartels on, and that we need to end the imperial wars of choice and face the real battle on our border and in the failed state south of us. Weimerica Weekly covered the magic mix that makes a mass shooting a media event and I opened with some talk about Reviewbrah.

This week's essay will cover something I've been churning in my head for a bit, and Weimerica Weekly will tackle the most Weimerican of women in the land: Lena Dunham.

Thursday, June 22, 2017

WW1 - Trench Barber

 
 
Not dated but identified as a French trench barber. Official title? No, just a brother in the trench helping another out. Small moments of humanity to break up the weekly grind that is remembering the Great War.

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Whatever Happened To The University of Phoenix?

We see phenomena pop up, burn brightly and then disappear. People like to point to this in business and laugh over Pets.com and the like, but those groups are memorable because of the lunacy involved. It is common to see giant phenoms explode in size, overreach, and then be sliced back in scale to a long term natural size. Capital demands it, so capital can skew institutions but also reveal their flaws.

Look at the fate of the University of Phoenix (UP). After taking the for-profit university model to a nationwide network that became an SNL punchline, UP's parent company saw the stock zoom to nearly triple digits. It now has gone private at a staggeringly low price of $10/share. Revenue is still a concern due to cratering student enrollment. The problem going forward is enrollment, but this did not purely go private due to a reorganization push.

When UP's parent firm went public, it was all fun and games as money poured in to catch that sweet secular boom in college enrollment. UP used a great valiant pitch to normies to justify its existence, "Using da Internetz to make college accessible for all" while behaving like a boiler room for real estate or penny stock sales. Their boiler room tactics were applied to potential students.

They compensated their enrollers on how many people they sucked into UP. Once enrolled, they would say how much a student qualified for loans without matching it up to what they actually needed for that semester or their course load. This was all just using the students as a conduit for UP to suck off the government teat. Walmart and McDonald's use the EBT underclass as nationwide conduit for a transfer of wealth. UP was doing the very same but with nondischargeable debt. It is far more devious than Walmart of MickeyDs because of this.

UP's trajectory actually revealed the con of all of education as it stands today. Criticism of UP was they were not totally honest with students about courses, about the education process, about debt and about their potential job prospects. These criticisms can be leveled at traditional universities but no one did so because the media-academia complex is a satanic union. One criticism of UP was that they did not care about graduation or completion rates. Check the graduation rates of community colleges, HBCUs and even second tier state schools. It's similar.

The problem for UP was that they threatened the traditional system, which right now outside of STEM is nothing but certificates to get white collar jobs. The good life as the Last Psych would put it was all college was resting its hat on, and that my friends is a slender reed. Whether UP was being devious or not, it was only a matter of time before the media would attack for-profit universities, for regulatory regimes to start pressing them and for universities to offer the same online experience, albeit at a much more expensive price tag.

This privatization is more to avoid the rules and regulations that come with being a publicly traded firm. It will also take the firm out of the media spotlight as well. As far as a turnaround, UP has already laid off half of its staff. Cost cutting has been going into effect already, so now it is adjusting the firm to a lower enrollment that is not reliant on getting the absolute fringe marginal student. UP will exist and continue but in a smaller form with less visibility. They need to retrench and forget that marginal student that is just the next body in the door.

They will leave that student to the government protected university cartel with its media salesmen. C'mon, don't be a loser, go to university. Don't you want the good life?

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Weimerica Weekly - Maximizing Mass Shooting Exposure

New Weimerica Weekly is up. This one is a little over 40 minutes. I spend the first 12 or so discussing Reviewbrah. he is like a Mr. Rogers for the 21st century. After that, I discuss what makes a mass shooting a media event versus just page 8 news. After the Dylan Roof mass shooting, the mass shootings in America have been mostly swept under the rug, most famously the Orlando Gay Slaughter*. Shooters don't fit the media narrative, and the victims are not all perfect for manipulating normies.

*The Orlando shooting is odd but I've heard a good explanation for why there was little to no follow up. As an ISIS inspired terrorist and son of an immigrant, this had to be suppressed for the election. There had to be no follow up because of a wild rumor I read elsewhere. The Afghani shooter spent hours on the phone as the cops waited and waited outside. He didn't shoot anyone yet. Then, in the last minute, he killed 50 gays. That's the story. Better story is the SWAT team finally went in and 50 gays died in the firefight between the shooter and SWAT. No one would want to report that in a tough situation, America saw innocent gays during PRIDE killed in the crossfire.

Monday, June 19, 2017

The Amazon-Whole Foods Future

Amazon agreed to buy Whole Foods. I recently wrote how Whole Foods was getting beaten up by Trader Joe's. The problem was the casual or marginal organic consumer. Trader Joe's can beat Whole Foods up in that market by being a bit cheaper. Whole Foods (WF) itself is rolling out stores that are more stripped down and have a smaller footprint so that they can pluck the younger, poorer organic leaning consumer. Amazon's purchase of WF shows you how WF can become very competitive but also the dark, poorer future the progs predict will come.

Amazon has been testing no lines, no check out, pick up grocery stores for a while. This sounds futuristic and exotic but it's not. Kroger does something similar called "Clicklist". Shop online, pay online, the staff at the store attempts to fill the order (not perfect) and then you the consumer pick up your groceries at the store. This is an adaptation of the old failed online groceries idea, but the twist is you pick it up so the grocery chain does not have to have a delivery fleet. It is also anchored in their existing distribution network, so it is not all of the corporations' business.

Amazon now has a corporation with an existing store footprint, a brand name that people consider high status and an existing market strategy that makes money. It has problems, but that's where Amazon comes in. Amazon starts applying its online buy + pick up formula to WF, and now WF can move to smaller stores. WF can also pop up in odder locations that have warehousing space and move with the flow of their consumer base (keep white flight in mind).  WF has an Internet savvy consumer base so this type of shopping will work.

Suddenly the fixed costs of a store get cut, the staffing costs get cut and WF is leaner as a firm. WF then can compete better on price with Trader Joe's and their quality organic goods will not be so much more expensive than the organic labeled items in Kroger, Wegmans, Target, etc. It helps WF bottom line with costs and potentially expands their top line sales growth. It will make each location more efficient.

Why stop there though? This is about the future. Amazon and WF both see a poorer consumer here and now and that trend will continue. They must become cheaper. This idea helps but also points to the future for city living. I talk and write of the Clinton Archipelago. I also mention how these cities are massively feudal in their design. New towers of condos and apartments do not get made with mid-level pricing. They are for more wealthy folks to concentrate their living in NYC, San Fran, Miami, etc.

Amazon is also testing another program: drone deliveries. Extrapolate the ideas with these specific consumer brands. Amazon can use its online shopping for more warehouse style 'stores' that deliver by drone. Cities will start seeing drone copters deliver food to the towers so that the tower residents, the lords and ladies of the Clinton Archipelago, never have to risk traveling on the city streets among the riff-raff that are their political allies.

The Rio or Sao Paulo dystopia living will be exemplified by these towers that can use technology to avoid the consequences of bad progressive governance. Why stop there? These progressive elites, and even just wealthy soft right elites, will remove themselves from the public sphere. These Whites, Asians, Jews and occasional non-Asian minority will harden their feudal enclaves. Eventually they will leave their surroundings a wasteland filled with a violent and dumb underclass. They won't apply VR towers for those folks to clean up the streets or sequester problem populations.

Take this out further. Extend the technologically enhanced segregation. Enhance the decay and degradation of the masses. They'll create Elysium.

Sunday, June 18, 2017

Social Matter - Destroy The Cartels

New essay at Social Matter. Let's bring the troops home from the Middle East and Afghanistant. Let's deploy them to a theater and a contest that truly affects all of America. Let's destroy the cartels. This will also make Mexico a safer place so that Mexicans in America, many of which are just refugees of the cartel wars, can return to and build lives there again. This war will come some day, and we can choose to engage now or wait until the situation is much worse for us.

Friday, June 16, 2017

A Social Media Wrinkle In Divorce + SM Review-Preview 94

People in our sphere have noted the comedy of the fake Facebook life. Some of us call it Fakebook for that reason. I've discussed the need buried in some people to construct a digital self that is an idealized version of a person for mass approval that slides further and further from reality. This really allows for fun with divorce.

Television rarely portrays family life as good, and Facebook is like counterprogramming to that. It is not entirely healthy, but pro-family messaging is great to see hitting people's eyeballs. The comedy is when the reality of a family situation splits entirely from the faux depiction. Women compete on all things social for status, and the idea of being married to a great guy is one many value.

Seeing the representations of your pals or family members as perfect husbands is nice to see them finally given some good PR, but it is a problem when even you know it's not hype but outright falsehoods. Not just falsehoods in his behavior but in how the wife really feels. It then creates a strain not just for the individual doing it but everyone in the know.

This becomes a major issue when the divorce hits. How many of those posts were lies? How long was the lying going? Ultimately, there is the old idea that it's not just the lie but what else can people doubt? Maybe women are just late to the game that the Internet is forever. Maybe not young women, but your older aunt that forgot every husband post from 2014-April 2017.

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Last week all I had to offer was a Weimerica Weekly on real estate bubbles and the buying market right now. There were other great articles on Social Matter in my absence. Michael Perilloux had one on how to catch a wife.

This week I will outline the way we can bring the boys home and attack foreign organizations that truly threaten our national interests and security as well as already operate within our borders. Weimerica Weekly will return a little more current than before, as you may have guessed I recorded the last two in advance. Might touch on mass shootings as what makes one a media event (hint: SanFran's UPS shooting doesn't due to Mr. Lam). I dislike recording in advance but had to due to life events.

Thursday, June 15, 2017

WW1 - The Steampunk War


Pictured is a British heavy daimler tractor on the Amiens-Albert road in 1916. An odd piece of military machinery but it served a purpose.

I've posted before how the Great War had a foot in both worlds. The creations used, the equipment and other items are all more steampunk than anything the fools that engage in steampunk today can think up. "Shuck I know, let's add more gears to something!" Sometimes simple tractors and horses or oddball gasmasks capture that idea of between time better than a 21st century imagination can dream up with its contemporary limitations.

Wednesday, June 14, 2017

No One Dare Speak Zuckerberg's Vision

Because the Democrats' bench is so weak, there are odd things afoot. Hillary Clinton keeps popping up because hey kids, why not try to run her again when she is four years older and spends four more years an unemployed millionaire. The progressives do not have ready for primetime players. Governor Cuomo is probably too white to win the nomination. This allows weird things like Mark Zuckerberg to go through motions of an odd play on ye olde Listening Tour. No one quite touches on Zuck's vision because to follow it through is too dark.

Zuckerberg's commencement speech at Harvard mentioned a universal basic income. He mentioend opioid addicts and manufacturing. He recently said he is no longer an atheist. Jesus Christ, this is more transparent than his $100 million donation to Newark Public Schools when the film on him came out painting him less than stellar. He is checking the nation as if he is a billionaire that cares. It is just good PR for a run for the presidency. Hillary Clinton did this in upstate New York prior to her run for the Senate seat vacated by Moynihan.

A writer at Zero Hedge mentioned the lunacy of a UBI, and how if Zuck is so concerned he could start grants now with his money or Facebook's if he chose. This does not quite touch on the endgame of what a UBI as presented by Zuck means. Strip away the purpose for all claptrap, and Zuck is pushing a new government benefit to pacify the Left's imported primitives with peasant desires. Take this to its logical conclusion, and let's not assume it is just a 'universal consumption credit', which is not UBI and would force you to spend it on approved goods to keep the elite's system going.

A universal basic income + this picture...

Dystopia Comes In All Forms
Means the Virtual Option from Moldbug's deep archive of ideas and pontifications can become real. You, not you the reader but theoretical you out there, will be approved for a UBI just as long as ou move to these nice condos sequestered from humanity with these fancy goggles that allow you to be king, queen or God for a day.

The beauty of it is that Zuck's corporation would get one of the contracts if not the VR contract so that even if he does not win the presidency and implement the idea, some other friendly progressive, non-Asian minority puppet can do it. Make no mistake it would be a revenue generator for Facebook and ROI for Zuck's VR Oculus investment. Google has Chromebook grants that go to underprivileged areas. Visit a classroom. They may not have desks, the teacher may have to get supplies herself and the kids may not be able to read at age 7, but by gum, they have a stack of Chromebooks in the corner just waiting for distribution.

Start looking at the low government benefit recipients not quite as pure parasites but as parasites that are conduits for the bigger parasites: corporations that market goods and services to the low to use their government credits on daily. Ask McDonald's. Ask Walmart. The low becomes a puppet not just for the demand of government services and those do-gooder social workers but for entire corporations to base their business strategy on (Angelo Mozilo and minority lending).

Mena was right with his tweet and Zuck may make it become reality but in a self-sustaining loop of dollar transmission. The UBI will come with goggles and make Zuck's investment whole. Maybe Zuck's vision is for a UBI and everyone to have purpose and to find a place. The purpose and self-actualization might be the underclass being segregated but made to feel a God when they put the goggles on, sipping their soylent in between sessions. Moldbug might have been wrong in thinking the Virtual Option would have to be a government project. A corporation just may lobby it into existence and let the marketplace sort it out.

Mena the Prophet

Tuesday, June 13, 2017

Weimerica Weekly - Real Estate Bubbles + Buying

New Weimerica Weekly is up at Social Matter. This one starts off with a discussion of the terror cycle in the wake of the Manchester Attack. There's plenty there for its own episode, but I use it as a lead off. I did discuss how Arianna Grande is weirdly transformed from a white kid to a mystery meat sex symbol. The core of the episode is on real estate, bubbles, how bubbles form and then buying in general. I talk about tools to use to look for a decent area in a city or the ideal town/small city to move to and realtor advice.

Monday, June 12, 2017

The Childless EU Leader Trend

A curious phenomenon has been noticed by those of us on the dissident right. It is the childless EU leader trend. It is actually amazing to see it listed out but should come as no surprise. This is the physical symbol of the elite of the EU and for that matter the American Left. When mapped out the battle lines would require a figurehead leader that resembles the form of the two sides. This also visually hints at why the EU elite will not stop the boats or remove the Muslims.

Each terror attack, each article on spikes in crime and each report that Sweden becomes more and more a Frozen Arabia comes with more frustration at the elite doing nothing. This is not the case. This inaction combined with enabling the replacement of natives is what they want. This is what the current regime wants. They want a mass of peoples who will have peasant values, enjoy the higher material standards of living compared to their third world homelands, and never become a rising elite to challenge these current elites.

Breaking it down further, the battle is truly the childless, leftwing Europeans and Jews with their non-European allies fighting the rightwing Europeans (or European-Americans) to control the economics, land masses and areas. As these left wing whites are not procreating, they are really fighting off their genetic cousins to kill them off and hand over control to alien cultures. That is it. Childless whites allying with non-whites to kill off procreating whites so that the non-whites control America and Europe.

It makes perfect sense that all of these EU leaders would be childless. It is the perfect symbol. Beyond that this is also the system selecting for the most dedicated to the system's goals. What greater dedication can one make to destroying native European and American cultures than to not have children in one's personal life.

These EU leaders are not making the decision to go childless now. They made the decision decades ago, when it still was a bit different. Maybe not in Germany where the TFR has been below Japan's since the mid '80s. This is a differentiator for the individuals sliding up the greased pole of politics when roughly any polished speaker can do their job. What type of marker does one need? "I'm dedicated, look how many times I worked for the party, hell I even sacrificed a family to fight for the party!"

It is not just about the system but a reflection of the culture themselves. Let us all be honest about the Clintons. Left to their own devices without the need to have a kid to run for office, they'd have both been single and childless forever. Obama might have been gay or found a white or mixed woman to marry. They felt the need to marry correctly and have kids because the electorate expected it from them. There is a natural revulsion or suspicion by many to childless men or women seeking power in America, so we still require our politicians to do so. European politicians no longer suffer that same burden. Their population now has enough of a critical mass that will not procreate or carry on, therefore politicians need not worry.

This hints at the lack of concern. These leaders have no shared concern for what may come from importing the third world. Why should they worry? They'll be dead in twenty to thirty years and leave behind no one to suffer in case the grand replacement project yields an apocalyptic warzone in their homelands. The decadence and hedonism of today is the focus. The individual has priority and individually they will be cut down.

Friday, June 09, 2017

Lost A Friend + SM Review-Preview 93

Sorry for a personal post. A childhood friend died. He had called our baseball crew the Originals. That was because tragedy struck us and killed a teammate when we were 13. As we made our way through high school sports, this friend would say it when someone didn't make a team, quit or injuries ended their career, "We lost an Original". I didn't expect one to die and truly lose an Original before middle age.

He was the coolest of the cool. He'd walk into a conversation and roll with whoever and even get the shy girls talking. He once wore his moms 80s necklace for an away game road trip and I busted him for it but didn't tell anyone else. He and I laughed how all the other players thought his chain looked cool, and it was a woman's 80s necklace. From a bad, bad extended family but was a legit good kid. There was always this fear that his family would get to him, but he always remained the wisecracking funny kid.

He married a pretty girl from our school and had some kids. I last saw him a few years ago in a grocery store back home where he gave me the Wassup Cuz and quick catch up on life. Ended with a handshake into a bro hug. I knew he was sick and contacted his wife when I heard there was no hope. I rearranged a business trip and set it up so I could drive up to home for 48 hours. See fam and see him. He was already too weak and barely awake. I knew it'd be close. I missed him by a week. Now I have to see his wife, see his kids and tell them how in school their dad was the coolest at our school.


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Last week I wrote about the potential for a reversal of urbanization. This would involve using tech and reorienting goals. A little coordination would help. Weimerica Weekly covered the career of Chuck Palahniuk, who seemed to see our social malaise and dystopia coming but faded away.

This week I may not have anything for an essay as I have to travel as cited above. Weimerica Weekly will be up though. I'll talk about Real Estate and bubbles.

Thursday, June 08, 2017

WW1 - An Internment Camp



Amazing to consider just how cozy this looks compared to what prisoner of war camps would be remembered as in the follow world war. This is taken in a Danish internment camp. This is light years away from the horrors that would await POWs both during and after the second world war.

Wednesday, June 07, 2017

The Housing Market Manipulation

Seems pretty obvious that the media meme for a hot housing market is out there. Get out there and buy folks, because now is the time. This is true to a certain extent. This is not the whole truth though. As I wrote on Monday about using construction as an indicator of immigration effects, there are data points that explain this hot housing market and how it is not all that it seems. The system has rigged a market to make it appear healthier than it is.

This is simple supply and demand. America has 25 million more people in it compared to a decade ago so the transactions of buying and selling should increase in absolute numbers. Add to this the secular decline in family size and you have fewer people per home. Readers undoubtedly have single friends that buy homes with no romantic prospect in sight or children. I've connected with single childless friends who have bought 1800 square foot homes and looked slightly confused why they needed a 4 bedroom home at that time. Add to this retirees that stay in their homes because multigenerational living is so lame and terrible, and the demand is there.

Supply is a problem. The banks had a lot of foreclosed homes on their books and slowly parceled them out so they would not have to write the loss on them. They even foreclosed slowly on larger homes in California because the loss would have been too big for their books. Irvine Housing Blog would spotlight homes that had not made a mortgage payment in three or four years with the homeowner still residing in them. The banks had a ton of REO inventory to sell.

Years ago I wrote how big investors were taking their ZIRP money from the FED and big banks and scarfing up properties to rent. This was a hunt for yield in a 0% world. Everyone is chasing yield. Rents had appetizing cap-ex rates, so creating a rental portfolio was seductive to big capital. This has created rent backed securities for private equity, which now has some government guarantees. These homes are off the market and rented, therefore leaving supply a problem.

This of course allows the holders of those rental properties to charge more rent. They are doing so at a high rate beyond the rise of not just inflation but many other goods and services. How are you going to save up for that down payment if your rent eats at your salary at higher and higher rates? Shucks, you can't exit that market though because construction just is not happening to supply you with affordable housing to move into. It is a racket for the oligarchs. Conslidation of banking had a point and goal, and make no mistake, it was never about you.

This all works to save the banks ass though just like eliminating mark to market did. Loans to big biz to rent out homes takes home off the market, which boosts the book value of those REO homes. Banks then can act in another way to help themselves: they can deny lending for developments and new construction. Buried in this article on new home construction, a developer mentions how loans have not been out there for new construction. Hmmm, no loans for new construction but the loans were out there for private equity and hedge funds to buy existing homes to rent, hmmm.

In Monday's post, I shared an image on home construction. The actual new unit construction has slowly risen from the catastrophic lows of 2009. This made some sense as the inflated construction of over 2 million units of the mid-'00s would have hangover inventory that needed to be worked off. Still construction is not at historical averages or levels that one would expect in a hot housing market if you look at longer dated charts that track booms and busts. Little talked about item is that all the regional construction firms of the mid-'00s got cleaned out wit the housing bust. Now just the big boys dominate. The big boys also bought land at firesale prices from bankrupt regionals. They are building higher end to lock in diamond quality buyers.

This is centralization and the elite helping themselves and never taking a loss. This is why a local small town councilman mentions developers wanting to put in $400K housing units when his or her city needs $200K starter homes. They don't care if the land was cheap or bought at a firesale price from the last crash. They are locking in a set buyer with a particular income level. There are corn field where the farmland gets turned into 100 homes at $400K a pop with no reasoning besides the buyer profile.

There is not a hot market in the mode of prior booms. There are just many buyers looking for homes in a suppressed supply. This is not about affordable family formation. There will be no consequences for the high end. They will continue to extract from you the monthly nugget that they feel entitled to, and will have a system completely designed to maximize their gains.

Tuesday, June 06, 2017

Weimerica Weekly - The Forgotten Author of Weimerica

New Weimerica Weekly is up at Social Matter. This one covers an author that seemed to have a finger on the pulse of our culture but somehow faded away. We laud Houellebecq but this guy is forgotten.

Monday, June 05, 2017

The Construction Immigration Indicator

The data sent by governments is questionable. People from all over the globe can take turns making fun of each other's governments attempts at spinning a positive story. Writers question not just the veracity of the data but the weaponization of data to game markets, game deflators in other measures or simply bamboozle with a headline. People have to look for other indicators and look for numbers and information that does not lie.

Immigration has a little indicator that points to either deportations working or people self-deporting: construction labor. Look around the web and you will see news bits on the rising costs to new home construction. Maybe it will be framed as labor costs surging or a labor shortage. Even Forbes cannot deny it nor the tie to immigration. Self-deporting is at play. The day laborers don't use a fake SSN since it is a cash pay job. Illegals with fake SSNs can work retail, in factories etc, so theya re a bit more hardened unless they are feeling heat for already breaking the law (using fake or stolen SSns is a crime). The articles linked are from all over America so it is not purely one area seeing the drop.


Everyone knows that an illegal immigrant is not going to stick around unless an employer is going to break the law and pay them (or they qualify for government benefits somehow). Housing starts are nowhere near the mid-'00s peak, but construction has recovered. Rising labor costs mean all those subcontractors cannot run to Home Depot and load up a truck worth of day laborers. If those individuals are leaving or being removed at all, then the firms must hire reliably legal workers.

This will hurt builders on their margins, but in reality in is more likely to place a restrictor on how fast they can move units (a good thing to prevent fast forming bubbles). America has subsidized housing for so long that no one even sees the small things we do to encourage the transactions. This will help everyone else. Construction workers who are natives can earn better wages with some power to their wage demands. This then also forces other industries that bid on that same labor pool to have to move their wages north a bit to recruit. Go figure, the working men of America might see a little of the action instead of the developers.

Keep tabs on this indicator and news item if the construction industry does tick up. The new housing starts have been slow to recover but that is a post for Wednesday. If the media will not report directly on something, one must go to indirect sources. While we all want to deport them all, a far smarter move is if illegals deport themselves before we have to physically remove them.

Sunday, June 04, 2017

Social matter - The First Reversal Of Urbanization

New essay up at Social Matter. There is a way for Urbanization to be stopped and even reversed. This one covers all of the tailwinds that are present and will continue for decentralization. Most importantly, it will take coordination and decisions made by individuals to come together with their shared interests and goals. The Bug Man city of today loses is lustre as it continues to eat its newcomers.

Friday, June 02, 2017

Evergreen College Fakeover + SM Review-Preview 92

The farce that is the student takeover of Evergreen College is pathetic but getting mainstream attention. There is no rebellion here. There is nothing edgy and cool. The college administrators at any point can call in security and have the students removed. At any point they can call in local police and have the students removed. This is all a show. It is encouraged and wanted by the administration. It is a show, a performance and a travesty.

Not quite. This will hopefully help usher the demise of universities. The last thing universities have to hold it all together is that they are the gatekeeper to good jobs and the nice life. That link is really close to being dissolved, or maybe that gate is rusty and looking like it will fall apart. Once that is gone, what reason is there to go to college?

It is no longer up, but HVAC AC Bro once wrote a series for Theden titled "Confessions of an Overeducated HVAC" or some funny title along those lines. In the series, he wrote how he fell into the trap of going to college and getting the Boomer job going, but that it was going nowhere and was empty. He then found freedom in an HVAC life. It is a status thing and people get sucked into the constant media messaging that college educated is superior to not college educated.

We know this to be a lie. We know that four years in Marxist indoctrination camp is a net negative. We live in the age of the autodidact so you will continuously educate yourself if you choose once you leave university. The other thing is that a college degree is not guaranteeing you a great job anyway. How many of your peers have non-dischargeable debt that will not be paid off until 2030? Okay, now how many non-college graduates have that?

The other bit is that the path up to executive VP or the C suite is a limited path. You will not make it. Hitting six figures is going to be tough as well. Is the 100K in debt worth a college degree if it means just $10K in additional annual salary? My advice to many young high school students is to go only if someone else can pay for it.

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Last week I wrote about the old, obsolete systems that have caused problems for the F35 program, not the plane itself. The plane will crush anything in its path. The plane should have been delivered quickly and honestly, the program should have been scaled back. Weimerica Weekly was on progs trying to redraw the family by using odd exceptions to reshape our rules.

This week I will write about how the things that point to greater centralization actually point to the possibility of greater decentralization. The tailwinds are there for a decentralization trend. It's going to take some coordination but also more mismanagement from the progs that run cities.

Thursday, June 01, 2017

WW1 - Paintings Help Transmit The Horror


William Orpen painted "Dead Germans In A Trench" and was largely forgotten by the art world until the 1980s. One thing that art and paintings have as an advantage to photography is that while one can understand the death and destruction of fighting, painting can help soften that hit of seeing dead bodies. I've shared enough photos of the Great War to get that stress and pain through, so one can see the contrast of war photograghpy and art.